As we construct our macro outlook our attention is drawn to two of the linchpins of the US economy; housing and the job market.  These we, as we know, two of the hardest hit sectors during the recession and have been steadily improving, much to the chagrin of perma bears and underweight portfolios alike.  While I am certainly not fully on board with the bull case from a macro perspective, there is an idea about where to invest should the improvements continue.

Businesses that survive, thrive, or are founded during downturns tend to be champions as the recovery ensues.   Think of the beaten down oil conglomerates that ran lean through the 80’s and 90’s – any wonder they are so profitable.  Think of Amazon surving the .com bust to be the dominant force in ecommerce.  An idea whose logical time had come and a business model forged under fire.  The current candidates for that time of success are LinkedIn, Trulia and Zillow.

LinkedIn – online jobs exist, sure.  But an online professional network, job market, and talent source did not.  While jobs are scarce there is value to the network, when more job opportunities arise, the network is even more valuable.  LinkedIn dominates the online job market and is evolving quickly to be the default of professional identify and talent sourcing.

Trulia and Zillow – each with its own unique nuances – but generally speaking utilizing a rich media experience, across providers and including relevant reference documents (legal filings) and price information (comps) is the natural evolution for the real estate market.  These two are the mind share leaders and expect traffic volumes to increase as housing recovers.

Yes, you can play the actual housing food chain (TOL, LEN, HD, etc) – but as a tech investor who always seeks the disruption  or innovation – we think LNKD, TRLA, and Z will be leveraged plays for the recovery