Heraclitus, the Greek philosopher, known for his doctrine of change being central to the universe, is credited with the idea “nothing endures but change” or “the only constant is change.”  And as far back as we can see – he was right.  Circumstances are constantly changing – its is humanity and our reactions to circumstances that remain more constant.  This idea fits into the idea of natural cycles – whereby an ever varied set of circumstances but with similar direction produces predictable results from human nature.  As Twain said, “history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.”

We view change as an essential part in understanding the investment world, and the world at large.  Currently, change is most directly related to the “technology” industry, who’s very nature is to change something (alter, substitute, replace).  But “technology” was always around – the railroad was once technology, as was the telephone and steam engine.  They all share the common characteristic of change.

I apologize in advance for overuse of the word change.  It lacks specifics.  But it is done on purpose – change itself is hard to nail down.  In hindsight we can see hit – but before, or as it’s happening it is often not as easy.  For example, the advent of classified ads and AP content online was a change that signaled the end of the traditional newspaper business.  At the time however, it was argued for one reason or another that the move would be slow or not as big as expected etc.  In hindsight, it has been both swift and aggressive in all traditional senses of business.

Our entire career have been spent examining various technology industries and companies and try to think in terms of the broad sweeping changes that though we sometimes can see or sense, we underestimate the size of their impact.  This blog is dedicated to carrying on that research and thought process.  Not every note will have a discernible conclusion, but rather be an open ended question or suggest a signpost to watch for… or maybe just point to a larger issue.  We thoroughly enjoy discussing change and disruption and hope to provide a thoughtful outlook on the industry.