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The first two sectors for 2013 are beginning to overlap in a lot of ways – but for this purpose when we talk cloud we are focusing on providers and the data center while mobile is more equipment and service providers. In general, we continue to be positive on technology spending as a whole. There are not a ton of pie-expanding investments out there – tech spending is all about ROI now and the faster the better. Technology investments are enabling more efficient and nimble companies and helping profitability (and even morale in many cases). There are more themes and more specific niches to consider – but here are the major groups.
1) Cloud
a. Premise: I want what I want, where I want, on any device I want…
b. Delivery: leaders in the cloud services space are AMZN and GOOG. Names to watch: MSFT, RAX, CTXS, and HPQ (last hope). Specifically – CTXS, RAX, and NTAP get attention as acquisition candidates by Cisco
c. Data Center: the “cloud” is a generic term, but in general the idea of housing all of your data at remote data center and delivering it on a global basis instantaneously puts heavy demands on computing resources. The ability to cost effectively scale the data center and deliver speed is critical. Top names: EMC (has VMW and will spin out Data Analytics), CSCO, IBM
d. There are some consultant type plays that would include CTSH, IBM, SAP and ORCL
e. Salesforce.com (CRM) falls into the “cloud” and I love what they are doing, but the valuation, like Amazon, is difficult to digest. CRM represents the SaaS (software as a service) space which saw several M&A deals this summer. The recent darling IPOs are Workday (WDAY) for HR Solutions and ServiceNow (NOW) for cloud infrastructure management
2) Mobility
a. Premise: Freedom; flexibility, and the same premise as cloud only I want it NOW
b. Delivery: telecom networks are traditionally high div paying and we still think VZ and T are fair plays on sell offs – but nothing to be exicted about
c. Infrastructure: as the world seeks to build out 4G networks the lead players are CSCO, ERIC, …
d. Equipment: there are only 3 names to watch: AAPL, GOOG, Samsung. Hail Mary plays in RIMM and NOK
e. Components: QCOM, ARMH, BRCM
f. Mobile Ad Spend – the only pure play is Millenial Media (MM) – but the big guys to watch are Google, FB, and Amazon – Apple is trailing.
3) Data Analytics
a. Premise: the world is generating data on a exponential scale – but what does it all mean?
b. The only way to describe this space is to say there are lots of people working the solve the problem of extracting information from data – across nearly any end market – healthcare, utilities, retail, tech…etc. There are hundreds of small, private companies working on solutions –most are getting gobbled up by the bigger players: IBM, ORCL, SAP. This space is likely to see several smaller IPOs this year and many more acquisitions.
Niche to Riche?
1) 3D Printing – initial market for industrial prototypes becoming saturated – key to the story is first, low cost home/office printing. Second, improved material possibilities leads to new “mass customization” market: only two real public plays are SSYS, DDD – expect HPQ to try something (they currently license SSYS); Autodesk (ADSK) for software – they will be a part of this.
a. Unknown what Trimble may do – they bought the 3D CAD software from Google (SketchUp) – they likely want to integrate with construction GPS aided equipment but something to keep an eye on. We like Trimble as a productivity enhancement play for construction, agriculture and fleets
2) Social Networking – yes, overhyped and underdelivered in many cases… a lot of this has to do with the misconceptions of what these firms actually DO vs the optionality you are buying. Moving forward, LNKD and FB are interesting, they have the ability to monetize their users and to expand the optionality of their platforms. LinkedIn has an actual market, job placement, and is expanding its offerings. FB is facing lots of problems, the biggest being mobile. The good news is they were able to generate $3-4b in revs without trying – currently they are rolling out new services, revenue models like mobile ads and ad exchange networks at the fastest pace to date. YELP not working. Hail Mary in ZNGA on gambling legislation
3) Housing meets Data – Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA)
Favorite large cap names:
GOOG, IBM, QCOM, ORCL, AMZN, EBAY, EMC, CRM
Turnarounds: MSFT (data center), INTC (servers), YHOO
SMID Names: high valuation – prone to blow ups but like the technology
FIO, FTNT, SPLK, WDAY
CSCO – VMware buys emerging competitor Nicira for $1.26b
Last night VMware announced it is buying Nicira for $1.05b cash plus $210m earnout. This is an a significant move for VMware/EMC and the networking space (and for Cisco and Juniper). Nicira developed the Open flow protocol for software defined networking (SDN) which at its root is server virtualization for networking gear. SDN seeks to separate the networking software from the physical hardware. Much like server virtualization allows more than one server instance to exist on one server – SDN allows for multiple servers on a single network node or to move the servers and networking “location” using software without reprogramming the networking gear each time. This is an emerging space with several new startups like Nicira and Big Switch as well as investments by Cisco (they invested $105m in Insieme in April*). The payoff in SDN resides not as much in hardware savings, though there are some, but in the flexibility and speed to deployment. Nicira has top tier early trial customers in eBay, AT&T, Rackspace and NTT, as has had positive feedback.
The impact for Cisco is twofold: 1) SDN seeks to isolate the intelligence of the network, something Cisco has embedded in the switches and routers it sells at premium prices; 2) VMW and EMC are partners with Cisco in selling data center solutions.
Cisco is already facing several headwinds including weakness on the macro front in Europe, continued lack of public spending, stronger Fx, and ongoing restructurings (additional 1,300 layoffs yesterday). In addition, the overall market looks to be rolling over. The sharp sell off in Cisco is mostly related to a fear of competitive pressures that will hurt its core franchise – switches and routers. The near term impact will be negligible and longer term networking gear will still be required and upgrades… but the risk is Cisco’s premium pricing and margins, as well as partners. Cisco has proven over time it can adapt, but this bears watching closely both for risks to Cisco, and also overreaction to the news (as may be seen yesterday by the larger downside move in Cisco) – shares should recover.
CSCO 4/20/2012
*has spun off and provided $105M in funding for Insieme, a project to create switches based on software-defined networking (SDN). In an employee memo, Cisco says it retains the right to buy Insieme for up to $750M, and outlines its SDN strategy. Cisco faces a tricky balancing act: it needs to compete with the SDN solutions of upstarts, but has to avoid cannibalizing sales of its high-margin, proprietary gear.
The Change Investor 