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The first two sectors for 2013 are beginning to overlap in a lot of ways – but for this purpose when we talk cloud we are focusing on providers and the data center while mobile is more equipment and service providers. In general, we continue to be positive on technology spending as a whole. There are not a ton of pie-expanding investments out there – tech spending is all about ROI now and the faster the better. Technology investments are enabling more efficient and nimble companies and helping profitability (and even morale in many cases). There are more themes and more specific niches to consider – but here are the major groups.
1) Cloud
a. Premise: I want what I want, where I want, on any device I want…
b. Delivery: leaders in the cloud services space are AMZN and GOOG. Names to watch: MSFT, RAX, CTXS, and HPQ (last hope). Specifically – CTXS, RAX, and NTAP get attention as acquisition candidates by Cisco
c. Data Center: the “cloud” is a generic term, but in general the idea of housing all of your data at remote data center and delivering it on a global basis instantaneously puts heavy demands on computing resources. The ability to cost effectively scale the data center and deliver speed is critical. Top names: EMC (has VMW and will spin out Data Analytics), CSCO, IBM
d. There are some consultant type plays that would include CTSH, IBM, SAP and ORCL
e. Salesforce.com (CRM) falls into the “cloud” and I love what they are doing, but the valuation, like Amazon, is difficult to digest. CRM represents the SaaS (software as a service) space which saw several M&A deals this summer. The recent darling IPOs are Workday (WDAY) for HR Solutions and ServiceNow (NOW) for cloud infrastructure management
2) Mobility
a. Premise: Freedom; flexibility, and the same premise as cloud only I want it NOW
b. Delivery: telecom networks are traditionally high div paying and we still think VZ and T are fair plays on sell offs – but nothing to be exicted about
c. Infrastructure: as the world seeks to build out 4G networks the lead players are CSCO, ERIC, …
d. Equipment: there are only 3 names to watch: AAPL, GOOG, Samsung. Hail Mary plays in RIMM and NOK
e. Components: QCOM, ARMH, BRCM
f. Mobile Ad Spend – the only pure play is Millenial Media (MM) – but the big guys to watch are Google, FB, and Amazon – Apple is trailing.
3) Data Analytics
a. Premise: the world is generating data on a exponential scale – but what does it all mean?
b. The only way to describe this space is to say there are lots of people working the solve the problem of extracting information from data – across nearly any end market – healthcare, utilities, retail, tech…etc. There are hundreds of small, private companies working on solutions –most are getting gobbled up by the bigger players: IBM, ORCL, SAP. This space is likely to see several smaller IPOs this year and many more acquisitions.
Niche to Riche?
1) 3D Printing – initial market for industrial prototypes becoming saturated – key to the story is first, low cost home/office printing. Second, improved material possibilities leads to new “mass customization” market: only two real public plays are SSYS, DDD – expect HPQ to try something (they currently license SSYS); Autodesk (ADSK) for software – they will be a part of this.
a. Unknown what Trimble may do – they bought the 3D CAD software from Google (SketchUp) – they likely want to integrate with construction GPS aided equipment but something to keep an eye on. We like Trimble as a productivity enhancement play for construction, agriculture and fleets
2) Social Networking – yes, overhyped and underdelivered in many cases… a lot of this has to do with the misconceptions of what these firms actually DO vs the optionality you are buying. Moving forward, LNKD and FB are interesting, they have the ability to monetize their users and to expand the optionality of their platforms. LinkedIn has an actual market, job placement, and is expanding its offerings. FB is facing lots of problems, the biggest being mobile. The good news is they were able to generate $3-4b in revs without trying – currently they are rolling out new services, revenue models like mobile ads and ad exchange networks at the fastest pace to date. YELP not working. Hail Mary in ZNGA on gambling legislation
3) Housing meets Data – Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA)
Favorite large cap names:
GOOG, IBM, QCOM, ORCL, AMZN, EBAY, EMC, CRM
Turnarounds: MSFT (data center), INTC (servers), YHOO
SMID Names: high valuation – prone to blow ups but like the technology
FIO, FTNT, SPLK, WDAY
There was a time not long ago that Microsoft dominated the world of computing and chaired the discussions about its future. Today, that notion is almost laughable, or at least highly contended as Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook dominate the landscape. Apple in particular is leading the mobile and app economies. However, to think that Apple’s success stems from 2002 and 2007 until now, with the introduction of the iPod, iPhone and iPad, is to miss the broader underlying shift in computing preference that have evolved.
Back in the 1980’s, the PC was a true revolution for businesses and to a lesser extent individuals. Much like Netscape and the internet would do a decade and a half later, the PC fundamentally changed our ability to perform certain tasks and relay information. The largest push of this wave of computing was from the business and productivity side (expense being part of that issue). The PC was a productivity tool – a way to process and create massive amounts of information and perform programmed tasks quickly. Sure, there were early attempts at creative uses, and publishing was important. But, by a wide margin, the driving force was productivity and interoperability. Hence, the Microsoft software that was installed on the majority of computers (a very savvy deal with IBM) extracted nearly all of the value and mind share from computing over the coming two decades. Apple sold PCs, and software, but it was a distant second. By the mid 1990’s, Apple was nearly bankrupt. This was despite a strong presence in the education market and with creative professionals. That’s right, even back then, Apple made better multimedia software. However, very few people outside of publishing, digital media and the yearbook committee used it.
Fast forward to 2002, Apple has been saved from the abyss and has a fresh look to its Mac lineup, as well as continued support from its die hard community. But nothing ground breaking and very few new mac users. The iPod is launched amid the surge in need for MP3 players to match the rise in downloaded music (largely by illegal means at that point). Early on the iPod had plently of competition, and while its hardware was cooler (it was) its success was not given. The first iteration only supported iTunes on Mac and there was a slow ramp… once iTunes was introduced for Windows based PCs the growth curve went parabolic. Apple supplied elegant hardware, smooth software, and a digital library and store that was legal. This marriage of hardware and software is true to Apple’s roots and adding inexpensive legal downloads of songs was a differentiating factor and introduced non-Apple fans to the company’s products and services. With each iPod iteration, leading up to the iPhone in 2007 (including improved iMacs and MacBooks) Apple improved its form factor, the software to hardware link, and continually impressed consumers with its stellar multi-media applications -winning new Apple fans. In fact, to this day, nearly 50% of Macs sold in Apple stores are new to Mac.
One of the main reasons I see that Apple became the dominant force it is today – is not necessarily that they all of a sudden had a huge product breakthrough and quality improvement, but rather that their greatest strength, multi-media, was now what the market demanded. The 90’s were about the productivity suite, the 2000’s shifted to multi-media. Therefore, Apple, by staying true to its mission and core strength, dominated.
So what? As it turns out, Microsoft was not very good at delivering a strong multimedia experience for consumers. Not that they are “bad” – but just not in the same league as Apple. Add to that the missteps in mobile, and Mr. Softie quickly lost mind share. However, something funny is happening today – while Apple is slowly making in-roads in the enterprise segment due to its iPhone and iPad capabilities – the enterprise community and cloud computing are bringing productivity back into the spotlight. Tools, platforms and apps for the cloud. Given that the vast majority of enterprise computing still operates on Windows, Microsoft has been presented an opportunity to regain mind share After all, productivity IS what they do. Now, this is not a given, for sure, just like Apple had to take the reigns in multimedia with its seamless hardware / software relationship. The push toward mobile and apps is not “traditional” enterprise and productivity computing. Microsoft will need to deliver strong products that, in some ways, undercut their existing, traditional, enterprise software sale. They need to be a little bold. But think about it – if most all business documents are still Microsoft, and many businesses still run exchange servers, and Microsoft is trying to push into the data center – what better opportunity to rework the system and deliver enterprise anywhere type solution – view, edit, create, communicate on any document with anyone in you contacts from any approved device. Productivity.
Time will tell – but it is worth noting that not all of Apples success is because Steve Jobs is a visionary (which he was) – or that “Apple just makes better products” – some of it has to do with the fact that the market finally cared about the type of product Apple made – timing matters. Keep an eye on Microsoft’s moves to offer end-to-end productivity software solutions to the enterprise using cloud and tablets -it matters again.
